India Bet are offering some exceptionally competitive odds on India winning Wednesday's ODI with their on-site odds at 1.4, the same as bet365. Now, yes, playing on India Bet is just for fun but that's still a cracking deal. Our odds on New Zealand are less generous and your better off sticking with the whopping 3.00 offered by bet365. It's a tight market though and for those of you who like patterns, then New Zealand are due a win. We don't buy into that though and are going to take a closer look to try and hunt out some of the market's real value.
If you look at how emphatic the India victories have been so far (wins by 7 and 6 wickets) then you can understand why they are such heavy favourites. But betting something at 1.4 is never going to make you any money, so we're going to need to look elsewhere if we are going to do that. I also don't think the 3.00 on New Zealand offers particularly good value. The margins are just a little bit too tight and I am looking elsewhere.
Now, for top batsman, where else can you look other than at Mr Kohli? The 3.4 offered by bet365 is only trumped by WillHill, who offer 3.5. I don't like backing favourites but that looks exceptional value for a man who is in such magnificent form. The team play around him, he actively scores singles and of late has been top scorer more often than not, making the implied chance of him being top scorer of 28% look all too low. I am going in and having a bet. Lower down the order though do keep your eye out for Kedar Jadhav, yet to be dismissed this series, he is looking dangerous with the bat and could be worth a sniff at double figures, 11.00 with bet365 but 14.00 with PaddyPower.
As a demonstration of why Kohli looks such good value, let's look at the odds of New Zealand favourite Kane Williamson. At 3.6 with bet365 he is very nearly exactly the same price as Kohli, but with just one big score to his name this series and far greater volatility at the top of the New Zealand batting line up. We can definitely look elsewhere for a jucier price in a team that may well be a few wickets down before the 5th over. James Neesham could well be the value there, scoring a 50 in the 3rd ODI and getting runs on the board when his compatriots didn't in the 1st, he could well be worth a bet at a big price. The 11.00 from bet365 looks ok, but again PaddyPower go the extra mile at 15.00.
Finally, let's look at the man of the match market. We've already discussed the fact that Virat may well put some big runs on the board. If that is the case, it becomes very likely that India wins, India's bowlers have been sharing the spoils of late and therefore Kohli will be very likely named man of the match. At 8.00 with bet365 that looks stupendously good value and is my top tip for the match.
Today's Top Tip
Back Virat Kohli to be Man of the Match at 8.00 with bet365
Today's Outsider
Back James Neesham for top New Zealand Batsman at 15.00 with PaddyPower
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